Discussion
Started 10th Mar, 2020

What triggers climate change impacts more, a changing climate or changing non-climatic factors?

We live in a changing world. Not only the climate is changing but also the system that is exposed to this climate.
In the discussion on the impacts of climate change, the changing climate is given a very important role, while non-climatic factors (e.g. land use, demographic/socio-economic factors) are often only the subject of studies of the status quo. However, the changes or transformation of such non-climatic factors in the future are often not adequately considered.
Aren't these factors equally or even more important, as there is a large scope for action, especially in the distribution of these elements?

Most recent answer

21st Jul, 2020
Odón Montes
Universidad Autónoma Chapingo

All replies (4)

10th Mar, 2020
Zagir Ataev
Dagestan State Pedagogical University
97% of climate scientists agree that the main cause of climate change is human impact. No one can predict exactly what consequences it may lead to, but there are at least 10 reasons why we should be concerned.
We'll have to draw the world map again. Climate change has led to the melting of glaciers in the Arctic, and it is likely that the last of them will disappear by 2050. About 2% of the world's water reserves are currently frozen. It may seem that this is not so much, but if all this ice is melted – the level of the world ocean will rise by about 70 meters. Climate change has already led to the melting of glaciers in the Arctic. If the trend continues, it is likely that the last of them will disappear by 2050. How is this dangerous? Not only large megacities — new York, Miami, etc.-are in serious danger. the melting of Arctic ice can lead to flooding of entire countries, such as the Philippines. Given that in China and India, hundreds of millions of people also live at a low altitude relative to sea level-climate change can provoke a mass flight of the population from dangerous territories.
Lack of food will lead to starvation.
About half of the calories consumed in the world are given to people by products from corn, wheat, soy and rice. According to scientists, in recent years, the number of the world's population has exceeded the mark of 7 billion people. This figure is projected to increase by another 2 billion over the next 50 years. Everyone on our planet will need something to eat. Add to this an increase in life expectancy and a decrease in child mortality, and you will see that by about 2060, the world's industry will have to produce 70% more food than it does now. Unfortunately, climate change will make it much more difficult to implement such plans.
Even if we forget that many economically developed regions may be submerged under water or turn into a desert due to rising temperatures, we must remember that the main crops are also in danger. About half of the calories consumed in the world come from corn, wheat, soy, and rice. Unfortunately, the scale of their production is not expected to increase, but rather to decrease as a result of climate change and environmental pollution.
This is interesting: these changes will hit poor countries most of all, but even developed regions may have to change their usual diet. Global warming will also have a negative impact on the meat and dairy industries. There are no solutions to these problems at this stage. "Canned carbon" in the Arctic.
According to scientists, the mass of carbon in the frozen Arctic soil reaches 1850 petagrams.
Carbon dioxide has always been present in The earth's atmosphere in small amounts, but after the beginning of the industrial revolution, its concentration increased by 3 times. This is bad news, because carbon dioxide traps heat, thereby warming the planet. This is the greenhouse effect. World governments are gradually becoming concerned about this and are making efforts to reduce the amount of emissions of this substance into the atmosphere. Little progress has been made, which is encouraging – the massive influx of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere could lead to catastrophic consequences in record time. Unfortunately, this feature still exists.
The Arctic territories are, in fact, a giant "safe" for carbon. In the frozen ground of the Arctic, it is contained in huge quantities. According to scientists, its mass reaches 1850 petagrams. This is a staggering number – 1 petagram is equivalent to 1 billion tons. To make it easier to imagine the scale, let's give an example. The entire human civilization, since 1850, has produced a relatively modest 350 petagrams.
Useful information: now for the bad news. As climate change increases temperatures in the Arctic, permafrost zones melt, releasing carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. If this continues – this gas will significantly increase the negative consequences of global warming and lead to catastrophic consequences for all mankind.
Ocean acidification
About a third of CO2 is absorbed by the world's seas and oceans.
Not all of the CO2 we produce is released into the atmosphere, and about a third of the gas is absorbed by the world's seas and oceans. In small concentrations, carbon is necessary – it is part of the shells and skeletons of marine life. But if it becomes too much-water begins to oxidize. Since the beginning of the industrial revolution, the acidity of the world's oceans has increased by about 35%. There is no doubt that this number will only increase in the future.
It is impossible to say exactly what the long-term effects of the new level of water acidity on sea creatures will be, but it is safe to assume that this effect will be negative. First of all, shellfish and corals suffer, and any significant loss of them affects all other organisms, because the food chain in the oceans is closed.
Mass extinction.
Thousands of species are at risk of extinction due to the destruction of their natural habitat, climate pollution, and hunting.
Ultimately, the extinction of living things is natural for life on Earth and is one of the consequences of evolutionary development. However, analysis of fossils shows that the rate of extinction is usually very low. Previously, only 1 species per million disappeared per year. But human civilization has significantly accelerated this process. Now many species can be destroyed in record time. So far, there have been no such mass extinctions in the history of the Earth. Research shows that there is a link between the disappearance of a large number of species and global warming.
Some scientists claim that the Earth is already entering the sixth period of mass extinction. Thousands of species are already under threat due to the destruction of their natural habitat, climate pollution, and hunting. And increasingly drastic consequences will only push them faster to the point of no return. Amphibians have already suffered quite a lot, for example, the extinction of the Golden toad and the marble frog was due to climate change. There is no doubt that they will be only the first of many.
Destructive natural disasters.
Droughts, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes are becoming more frequent and more intense.
Climate change is manifested not only in the fact that the average temperature on our planet increases by several degrees. It also causes extreme weather events. Droughts, floods, hurricanes, and tornadoes are becoming more frequent and more intense.
This is interesting: a Recent study conducted by the International group of experts on climate change showed that there is a direct link between climate change and an increase in the frequency of disasters.
Extreme weather events will lead to more victims among the population, and significant financial expenditures will also be required to restore the destroyed territories. At the moment, on average, cataclysms cause the death of about 106 thousand people per year, while the elimination of the consequences costs 184 billion dollars. These numbers will continue to grow as the effects of climate change become more pronounced. Cataclysms will affect every country, but it will be most difficult for developing countries that do not have enough resources and infrastructure to effectively counter extreme weather events that are gradually becoming the norm.
Wars for resources and territory.
Wars are almost inevitable, because the mass struggle of "refugees" with the rest of the population for land and useful resources will begin
When the effects of climate change are really at their full potential, there will be many people whose areas will become unsuitable for life due to droughts or floods. Wars are almost inevitable, because the mass struggle of "refugees" with the rest of the population for land and useful resources will begin.
This process has already begun: the wars in Syria are related, among other things, to the drought caused by climate change. And one of the studies helped scientists find out that there is also a relationship between this phenomenon and the increase in the frequency of violent crimes in the world. The reasons are not yet clear, but this trend does not Bode well for us in the near future.
The circulation of water in the world's oceans may stop.
Every second, about 45 million cubic meters rises from the bottom to the surface.
Not everyone knows that the water in the world's oceans is moving slowly around all continents. The warm upper layers gradually move North and down to the ocean floor, while the colder and more nutrient-rich masses move South and up. Every second, about 45 million cubic meters rises from the bottom to the surface. It takes about 500 years for the huge circle of water circulation in The world's oceans to end.
Sometimes, for example, as a result of climate change, this process stops. If this happens in the near future-the water temperature in the North Atlantic will decrease by 10 degrees, this will lead to a strong cold snap, for example, in Western Europe. The yields of all grain crops will decrease tenfold. In addition, if a way to "start" the circulation again is not found – nutrients in the oceans will no longer be distributed evenly. The entire marine ecosystem will be at risk of extinction.
This is already costing billions.
The atmosphere is polluted, which leads to catastrophic consequences.
Useful information: No one can accurately predict the economic and social consequences of climate change. It already leads to the death of hundreds of thousands of people a year, while financial losses over the same period of time reach an average of $ 1.2 trillion.
And these costs are only growing. Unfortunately, not all States have the resources to deal with the negative consequences. Backward countries will suffer the most, while developed countries will be less affected by climate change. They will continue to pollute the atmosphere and thus cause even more catastrophic consequences.
Is it possible to "hack" the climate to stop the warming?
Climate change will present humanity with serious problems that we will not be able to cope with.
It is difficult to say what the future holds for our planet. But if climate change leads to terrible consequences, there must be a way to deal with them in order to preserve life on Earth. Even if it doesn't eliminate the root causes.
Geo-engineering, also known as "climate hacking", offers an interesting way to deal with the consequences of the damage we caused – direct intervention in the natural systems of the planet. According to experts, it will be possible to release large amounts of sulfur into the atmosphere. This will mimic the effect of a powerful volcanic eruption and cool the planet slightly, as small particles will block out sunlight. These manipulations will not reduce the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere, but will help to cope with the negative consequences.
Although this method may seem like a magic pill that can solve the climate problems of mankind in the blink of an eye, it should be considered only as a last resort. It is impossible to predict what the artificial filling of the atmosphere with ash will lead to. And instead of making things better, we can only make things worse for ourselves.
There is no doubt that climate change will present humanity with dozens of serious problems that we will not be able to cope with. Wars and famines, natural disasters and mass extinction of living creatures are just the tip of the iceberg. Therefore, it is vital to take this problem as seriously as possible today. Tomorrow, the point of no return will already be passed.
11th Mar, 2020
Charles Anukwonke
Chukwuemeka Odumegwu Ojukwu University
climate change is a driver of environmental change. It is also seen as an environmental disaster in the current dispensation. There are both natural and anthropogenic factors to global climate change. More importantly, we look at those causative factors such as deforestation and land clearing including all combustion activities, industrial and transportation emissions and others. In every concern, all factors that tend to increase the levels of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere are regarded as those key factors.
11th Mar, 2020
Hailemariam Meaza
Mekelle University
Hello,
A timely question! Climate change is always there, but vary with magnitude. Before we enter the Anthropocene (industrialization), the major climate change driver was natural factors (e.g., volcanic eruption) and invisible human activities. However, after the 19th century, our share in climate change has been widened. At present, human activities are the most trigger to climate change. It is also worth noting that natural factors are into it!
With kind regards,
Hailemariam
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